Here’s how DNC pollster Celinda Lake sees the 2024 election shaping up for Tuesday

Author: John Casey

As 2024’s presidential race intensifies, Washington, D.C., pollster extraordinaire, Democratic pollster Celinda Lake tells The Advocate what she is seeing and what she expects to happen on Tuesday when Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump face off in the presidential election. Lake was the lead pollster for Joe Biden’s campaign in 2020 and is a lead pollster with the Democratic National Committee this year. – Why The Advocate endorses Kamala Harris for president
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– Kamala Harris: Our One-on-One With the Vice PresidentSticky notes where people wrote why they are supporting Vice President and Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris are left on a wall in the Harris/Walz Campaign Headquarters for Northampton County in Easton, Pennsylvania on November 1, 2024.Photo by SAMUEL CORUM/AFP via Getty Images

Lake has areas of concern, though, within Harris’s coalition, specifically among Latino men and white blue-collar voters, whom she sees as vulnerable to Trump’s appeal. “Again, I call it a ‘secret surge’ among Trump’s base, which could be difficult to detect in polling,” she said. ‘What concerns me is the vote among white blue-collar [voters]… and the effective use of wedge issues such as transgender rights, immigration, and crime, appealing to socially conservative voters.”

One key factor for Lake is the lingering perception among many swing voters that Republicans perform better on economic issues. “[Swing voters] still have that belief that Republicans are better generally on the economy and that [Trump] is a successful businessman,” she said. “To address this, Harris’s campaign has focused heavily on economic policies, hoping to counteract Trump’s advantage on this issue.”

I told Lake about my conversations with former GOP strategist Sarah Longwell and Lincoln Project cofounder Rick Wilson in which I learned that about 11 percent of Republican voters may be persuaded to cross the aisle or vote independent, a trend they have already observed in preliminary polls. “It’s going to be undermeasured,” Lake predicted.

For Black voters, Lake acknowledged that Black men have historically been a strong base for Harris, though some polls suggest minor defection. However, she believes this trend has been overstated and poorly understood by the media. “Black men are her second-best group,” she said.

Finally, Lake compared Harris’s current campaign to the 2020 Biden campaign she led, noting both similarities and new challenges. “Competing on the economy is similar,” she pointed out. “But the gender dynamics and abortion’s role in shaping female voter turnout make 2024 markedly different. I’m cautiously optimistic that Harris’s current momentum is a sign of strength, though momentum can shift quickly.”

Original Article on The Advocate
Author: John Casey